Florida vs. Miami prediction, pick, spread, odds, where to watch, TV channel, time, game preview (2024)

Image Credit: Michael Nash

A new season dawns Saturday at Ben Hill Griffin Stadium as the Florida Gators welcome the No. 19 Miami Hurricanes for the first meeting between the in-state rivals since 2019. With both teams having turned over their rosters significantly in the offseason, there will be plenty of new faces on the sidelines — all of whom will be seeking their first Florida-Miami rivalry victory.

Redshirt senior quarterback Graham Mertz returns to helm the Gators off a career season, while Washington State transfer Cam Ward steps in for the Hurricanes looking to turn their fortunes after an explosive campaign in which he scored 33 total touchdowns.

Though the program leaders have similarly struggled through their first two seasons, there is far more public pressure on Florida head coach Billy Napier given the Gators will be playing the most difficult schedule in college football history and he will be attempting to factor freshman QB DJ Lagway into an offense that ran relatively well last season outside of Napier’s occasional play calling struggles.

The Gators will also be debuting a retooled defensive coaching staff and a number of talented transfers, some of whom have grabbed starting jobs right out of the gate. Just take a look at the Florida depth chart for Week 1 for a complete breakdown of where everyone stands entering the Miami game.

UF enters the game set to play the first of eight preseason top 25 opponents and first of 11 Power Four teams. It also kicks off a tour of Florida given the Gators will play every Power Four team in the state with UCF and Florida State on deck before the season is out.

What will go down Saturday afternoon in The Swamp? Let’s find out.

Tale of the tape

Injuries and absences

Out for season (1): DL Jamari Lyons (ankle)

Viewing information

Date: Saturday, Aug. 31 | Time: 3:30 p.m. ET
Location: Ben Hill Griffin Stadium — Gainesville, Florida [88,548]

TV: ABC (Joe Tessitore, Jesse Palmer, Katie George)
Live stream: ESPN+ | SiriusXM: 132/192 | Radio: WRUF, TuneIn
Live updates: @OnlyGators on Twitter

Game notes

» Florida is 27-29 all-time against Miami holding a 2-1 mark in the last three regular-season meetings since 2008, the last time UM visited Gainesville. The teams are 12-12 when going head to head since 1971 with UF holding a 5-2 edge in The Swamp.
» The Gators boast an NCAA-best 34-game winning streak in home openers dating back to 1990. UF is 71-6 all-time when opening the season in Gainesville.
» Saturday marks the first time in program history that Florida will open a season against a ranked opponent in three straight campaigns. The Gators are 3-0 all-time when opening the season against a ranked team in The Swamp.
» This is the second time in history that an unranked Florida team will play a ranked Miami team. The last and only time it happened, in 1959, the Gators beat the Canes.

» Napier is 2-0 against Cristobal as assistant coaches on opposite sidelines. The duo spent four seasons together on Nick Saban’s staff at Alabama (2013-16).
» Florida is 9-4 at home, 2-7 on the road and 0-3 in neutral-site games under Napier.
» The Gators under Napier are 10-2 when leading after the third quarter, 9-3 when leading at halftime and 9-4 when rushing for at least 150 yards. However, UF is 3-9 under Napier when opponents score first, 1-7 when scoring less than 21 points, 4-14 when allowing 21+ points, 1-12 when tied or trailing after the third quarter and 2-9 when being outrushed.
» Florida is 2-10 against AP Top 25 teams under Napier, 1-5 last season. That drought extends to 8-18 against ranked opponents (2-7 vs. top five teams, 5-11 vs. top 10 teams) since 2018. In that same span, UF is 37-12 against unranked opponents.
» The Gators have scored in 448 consecutive games, an NCAA record.

Prediction and analysis

Spread: Florida +2.5 | O/U: 53.5

The Gators enter Saturday’s showcase showdown against the Hurricanes as underdogs at home in a season opener for just the third time since 1969; this despite playing Miami, which lost four of its final five games last season. (UF is 2-0 as an underdog in those prior games.) Both teams retooled significantly over the spring and summer, though Florida has been disrespected all offseason while UM enters as a top-20 team despite proving nothing yet under Cristobal.

Regardless of the outcome, this spread is the height of absurdity. The Gators feel like a well-matched team entering the game. Miami did load up defensively through the transfer portal and added a top-tier starting quarterback, but this is easily the most talented Florida team Napier has coached, and the way he has been speaking this offseason, it appears as if he is more confident than ever that the Gators will exceed expectations. Plus there is the DJ Lagway factor; UF’s freshman quarterback could impact the game in ways we cannot foresee.

The narrative around Florida’s schedule is legitimate, but it will affect the team far more over the latter half of the season than in the first half — particularly in the first game. And don’t dismiss The Swamp, which provides a legitimate homefield advantage, especially in Week 1 against a talented quarterback finding his druthers with a new team.

Both teams are unknown quantities. One of them is getting points at home in a game that feels as if it almost might be must-win given how the schedule shakes out. Wait every moment you can to try and get the Gators with a full field goal. This game will not be won by grinding it out, so lean on the over.

2023 final records: 3-9 ATS, 8-4 O/U, 1-0 Underdog SU

Odds and ends

» Uniforms: Florida will wear blue jerseys, white pants and orange helmets for the first of six times this season.
» Promotion: UF attempted to call for a “white out” in The Swamp despite the Gators wearing blue jerseys and the Canes wearing their traditional all-white road uniforms.